CNN’s Chief Climate Correspondent Bill Weir highlighted a new study that predicts the Earth could reach serious levels of global warming sooner than expected.
During an appearance on “CNN This Morning,” Weir said the study, which uses artificial intelligence to combine existing scientific models, found that the planet is “going to doom” more than previously predicted. fast.
“Where this machine learning differs from consensus science is that even if everything is done – a certain amount of warming is already there,” he said.
The study also found that even at net zero carbon emissions, the Earth could reach a rise of 2 degrees Celsius before 2060.
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“Prime Minister of Barbados, this is a death sentence for archipelago countries. That’s all he said at the last COP27. [The number 2] It was decided when it was determined that 1.5 degrees, if we stopped the warming there, it would wipe out the island countries, the low-lying nations. So, they moved it to 1.5,” he said.
The study estimated that the planet could reach 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels within a decade and predicted that temperatures could exceed 2 degrees Celsius by 2060.
Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries committed to limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
The likelihood of extreme weather, such as floods and wildfires, increases dramatically after temperatures rise by more than 1.5 degrees, scientists have said.
In this Aug. 25, 2021, file photo, the French Fire burns hills along Highway 155 in the Sequoia National Forest, California.
(Noah Berger/AP)
At 2 degrees of warming, there could be irreversible impacts on the planet’s population, including “chronic water scarcity” for three billion people.
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According to co-author and Stanford professor Noah Duffenbaugh, the study used machine learning and, in particular, artificial neural networks on climate models and then on temperatures throughout history to inform the AI’s forecasting process. I used observations as “independent input”.
Diffenbaugh and co-author Elizabeth Barnes ran three different scenarios, all of which concluded that the world would reach 1.5 degrees between 2033 and 2035, in line with other studies.
But the artificial intelligence broke with previous estimates when it predicted an 80% chance that degree warming would occur before 2065, even if the world reached carbon net zero.
A steady picture underlies the onslaught of warm temperatures in NASA and NOAA data summarizing global climate change.
(NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center)
If the planet doesn’t reach net zero at a reasonable pace, there’s a 40 percent chance Earth will cross the 2-degree threshold before 2050, according to AI.
Despite La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that slightly lowers global average temperatures, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates that the global average temperature for 2022 was 58.55 degrees, the sixth warmest on record. NOAA does not include the polar regions due to statistical concerns, but it will soon.
If the Arctic — which is warming three to four times faster than the rest of the world — and the Antarctic were included, NOAA said it would be the fifth warmest. NASA, which has long factored the Arctic into its global calculations, said 2022 is essentially tied for fifth warmest with 2015.
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