The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says additional cost pressures faced by local authorities could easily increase council tax bills by up to 5 per cent or £ 220-2024-25 a year.
The think tank said that significant increases in council tax would also create large black holes in local budgets for local authorities, who seek to increase social care.
In Wednesday’s Conservative Party Conference speech, the prime minister promised “social care will be made” after “decades of drift and ditter.”
However, in a new analysis published on Thursday, the IFS government promised an additional £ 12 billion a year NHS And social care “less than adequate” to assist councils in carrying out Mr. Johnson’s plan.
Economists say a 4 percent council tax hike next year will face English councils with a funding gap of 7 2.7 billion in 2022-23.
“Recently announced social care reforms pose major challenges for councils across England,” said David Phillips, assistant director of IFS.
“The funding announced by the government so far is unlikely to serve all of its objectives in the short term or long term.”
The government has said it will pay £ 5.4 billion over three years to begin new lifetime limits on care costs and more generous procedure-testing systems.
But IFS says the annual cost of meeting Mr Johnson’s ambitions could be around £ 5 billion a year – three times the average annual fund currently projected.
The think tank warned that without additional funding, some councils may need to tighten further care needs assessments to pay for improvements – eliminating some of the poorest people who need care.
Mr Phillips said, “Some of the poorest people can now see the loss of access to council-funded care so that coverage can be extended to others, people who are generally financially better off”.
Mark Franks, welfare director of the Nuffield Foundation Health Think Tank, which funded the research, warned: “Significant council tax increases the risk that local service providers may not be able to meet future demand or address staffing problems in adult social care.”
The formulas used to allocate funds among councils in England are outdated and “in dire need of reform”, the IFS said.
Blackpool’s population is estimated to fall by about 2 percent, and the estimated population of Tower Hamlets has increased by more than 20 percent since Whitehall officials set the current mechanism in 2013.
Kate Ogden, a research economist at IFS, said the funding system was “hopelessly outdated … which would result in gross injustices in the allocation of resources among councils.”