Last week, our follow-the-smart-money options were 4-0 in the post. We can’t beat Perfection but we can try to match it up with four more wins in Week 2.
New York Giants on the Washington football team
Thursday night’s adjustment is looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to division rivals. The Giants, managed by the Broncos, 27-13, failed to close as the 3-point home ‘dogged. The Chargers, 20-16, lost in the Washington home game as a 2-point favorite. The line opened with Washington listing itself as a 4.5-point home favorite. When Ryan Fitzpatrick was injured and Taylor Henneck started, pro-Giants funding fell from 4.5 to 3.5 with injury adjustments. Some of the stores are still down to 3. Giants are the divisional ‘dogs in the prime-time game’ and ‘the least amount of dogs (40.5). The lower amount benefits dogs, as earning lower expected points makes it harder to cover favorites. When two undefeated teams face off, the dog on the road is about 65 percent ATS in the last decade. Also, the key reference, Scott Novak, has historically favored road teams (40-27 ATS, 59.7 percent).
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
The Bills dropped their starters to the Steelers, losing 23-16, 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the distressed dolphins made their way to Foxborough and upset the Patriots as 3.5 point road dogs at 17-16. The line opened with Buffalo listing it as a 3.5 point road favorite. The public say the Bills are a good team and overturn and overthrow Miami. However, despite this inverted betting, the line remains stagnant at 3.5. In fact, some shops look to be down to 3. Also, over the past decade, about 60 percent of September’s’ dogs have been ATS.
Los Angeles Rams in Indianapolis Colt
The Rams crushed the Bears 34-14 on Sunday night, easily covering 9.5-point home favorites. The Colts fell to the Seahawks, failing to cover up a 28-16, 3-point home run like the Dogs. The line opened with Los Angeles listing it as a 4-point road favorite. The public cannot believe the line is too low and rushes to the window to score points with the Rams, expecting victory and cover. However, despite this inverted betting towards LA, the line has not sprouted. This symbolizes some line freeze liability on the Colts, as the oddsmakers refuse to move to 4.5 and give hooks to the less intelligent buyers in Indianapolis. The Rams are on a tough schedule, as they head to the East Coast for the West Coast game. Indianapolis is one of the week’s top antagonists, as about 75 percent of tickets are riding with the Rams.
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
These non-partisan opponents are coming from anti-polar demonstrations. The Broncos took care of business against the Giants, winning 27-13 and covering 3-point road favorites. But the Jaguars were embarrassed by the lesser Texans, 37-21, completely losing out on 3.5-point road favorites. The line opened with Denver listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public has completely surrounded the Broncos, expecting an easy win and a blanket. However, the line actually fell from 6.5 to 6. Why do odds makers line up to make it easier for the public when they already like Denver? Since respected pro-money buys fewer points with the Jaguars, the reverse line moves on their behalf.
Josh Appelbaum NFL For Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s Digital Magazine Sports Betters