Phoenix Open odds 2023: Golf picks, predictions for Waste Management

It’s going to be a sports weekend in Arizona. Not only will Super Bowl LVII descend on State Farm Stadium on Sunday evening, but golf’s biggest party will begin on Thursday with the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

The WMPO is known for its raucous atmosphere, but it has become one of the most important tournaments on the schedule and attracts a superstar-laden field. A handful of tournaments have already been played, including some big ones, but this is the first real headliner, and it appears on the entry list.

Rory McIlroy is the current betting favorite for Waste Management at +800, but it’s really splitting hairs between the Northern Irishman and Jon Rahm at +850. Xander Schauffele, who has back-to-back top-three finishes here, is next at +1400. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler (+1500), Tony Finau (+1800), and Collin Morikawa (+1800) are the only other golfers under 2000.

As with any star-studded field, you can find some attractive prices on some big-time players, but you want to tread lightly because this event is usually won by the big names. Here are the winners going back to 2015, with their final scores in parentheses:

  • 2022: Scotty Scheffler (-22)
  • 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
  • 2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
  • 2018: Gary Woodland (-18)
  • 2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
  • 2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
  • 2015: Brooks Koepka (-15)

Instead of peppering in a few long shots, most of my betting will focus on the midrange, focusing on a few players with solid wins at reasonable prices.

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Phoenix Open Odds, Picks and Predictions

Victor Holland (+3300, BetMGM)

Hovland has had a relatively quiet start to 2023 compared to some of his peers, but that’s why we’re taking him above 30/1 rather than closer to 20/1.

Howland played in the Sentry Tournament of Champions right out of the gates, but then took a few weeks off before finishing T13 in a weak field at Pebble Beach last week. Nothing to get excited about, but nothing to relate to either.

So while Howland’s name has yet to come up this year and he missed the cut at TPC Scottsdale in 2022, he has shown he can top 10 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players and The Open Championship. Can compete in the top arenas with last year.

Sam Burns (+4200, FanDevil)

It’s a bit surprising to see Burns in that range, as the former LSU Tiger has four wins and two runner-up finishes in the last 22 months. Burns has only played twice in 2023, but he put together an encouraging performance at American Express two weeks ago to finish T11 and post two rounds of 64.

Burns missed the cut here in 2022, but he finished T22 back in 2021, and his game has improved a ton since then.

It won’t be long before you get a player with that kind of resume at that number.

Sam Burns of America
Sam Burns of America
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Corey Conners (+8000, BetMGM)

A few weeks ago, Corey Conners was being talked about as a player you wanted to keep an eye on as a possible bet at the Masters, and yet here he is at +8000 for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. .

Why have the conners, which usually number about 5,000 or more in such fields, grown? Most likely due to inactivity. Conner finished T18 at the Sentry TOC and T12 at the Sony Open in mid-January, but then didn’t play in any of the California events, allowing him to go under the radar this weekend.

Connors has played here three times and has never missed the cut, plus he is back in the top 20 in 2021.

KH Lee (+9500, FanDuel)

A TPC course expert, Lee is absolutely worth it in this range. Not only does he have two career wins at the TPC course (Craig Ranch), but he was also the runner-up in the event two years ago and has played the event three times now, so he knows the atmosphere, the conditions. Have enough experience. And of course.

Lee is coming off a missed cut at American Express, but he posted a T7 at Sentry TOC and finished inside the top 30 at Sony, so his current form is nothing to worry about.

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