Super Bowl 2023 prediction, prop pick: How to bet first quarter total

When it comes to betting on the Super Bowl, it pays to buy the best number. This is especially true for the first quarter total before Super Bowl 57.

The 1Q total for this year’s matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs is working at 9.5, including BetMGM and Caesars, with overjuice ranging from -125 to -135. At FanDuel, the total is set at 10 with a low of -126.

This opens up a world of opportunities for savvy bettors ahead of Sunday’s game – including a clever way to bet on the exact score not offered by the oddsmakers.

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Super Bowl 57 First Quarter Totals: High or Low?

Historically, the first 15 minutes of the Super Bowl were certifiably snooze-worthy. The first seven contests in Super Bowl history had just 26 combined points in the first quarter, and nine of the 10 title games from 2000-09 had a first-quarter score of seven points or fewer.

This has not happened in recent years. Since 2010, double-digit points have been scored in the first quarter in eight of 13 years (61.5%), implying a fair value of -160 over the over. With five of the last seven title games producing a combined score of 10 or more in the first quarter, it’s easy to see the appeal in betting over 9.5 at roughly -130 odds.

When you take the total to 10, though? This changes everything.

Kenneth Gainville
Kenneth Gainville
Icon Sports Wire via Getty Images

Over that same 13-year period, betting under 10 would produce a 5-2-6 record – good for a 71.4% hit rate with six strikes. That would stretch to a ridiculous 14-3-6 record (82.4%) over the past 23 years and a 30-15-11 record (66.7%) in the 56-year history of the Super Bowl. Put another way: We’ve seen just three first quarters with more than 10 scores in nearly a quarter century.

Clearly, the key to maximizing the 1Q total is to include 10 in the bet, which has been the exact combined first-quarter score in about one-fifth of all Super Bowls. And while pushing isn’t an exciting way to settle a bet, it’s profitable when the odds of a first quarter with more than 10 points are slim.

Unique Ways to Bet on Super Bowl 57 Total 1Q

As we mentioned above, 10 is a remarkably common score for the first quarter of a Super Bowl. In fact, it’s the single most common result in Super Bowl history, having happened 11 times overall and six times in the past 13 years — including each of the last three contests.

So how do you bet on it happening a fourth time? While most sportsbooks will let you bet on each team’s exact score for the first quarter, they won’t let you bet on the exact score. shared The score is where it pays to shop around.

If you bet separately on over 9.5 and under 10, each at -125 odds, you can essentially bet on a 1Q score of exactly 10 at 4/1 odds. That’s pretty impressive for a score that has occurred in three straight contests and 46.2% of all Super Bowls since 2010.

Get the lowdown on the best USA sports betting sites and apps.

Another bet worth making? The total points for the first quarter are tied. What on the surface seems like a coin-flip bet — Odd/Even is both -110 on FanDuel — has actually been extraordinarily profitable for “Even,” who has cashed in 10 straight Super Bowls and 34 times in the game’s 56-year history. What is it. (60.7%).

It should come as no real surprise given how often final scores of 10 and zero occur in the first quarter. To that point, “any scoreless quarter” is a steal at +410 (FanDuel), having cashed in six times since 2004 and three times in the last eight Super Bowls.

Fittingly, all three of those scoreless quarters came in the first 15 minutes, which has happened nine times in Super Bowl history. And while we likely won’t see a scoreless frame to open Super Bowl 57, it’s highly likely we’ll see fewer than 10 points — if not exactly 10 points — in Sunday’s first quarter. .

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